Analysis of the development of fertility in the Russian Federation. Regional features of the Russian demographic situation Modern sociology state, problems, development prospects

Peculiarities

demographic situation in the Russian Federation

The demographic situation in Russia is characterized by complex and ambiguous processes in the development of the population. In terms of the number of inhabitants, the Russian Federation ranks seventh in the world after China, India, the USA, Indonesia, Brazil and Pakistan. By the beginning of the 21st century, Russia was in a state of steady process of depopulation, having one of the highest rates of natural population decline.

The main features of the current demographic situation in modern Russia are: significant scale of population decline; low birth rate, widespread one-child family, which does not ensure the reproduction of the population; the continuing aging of the population, changes in the ratio between workers and pensioners, exacerbating the problems of pension provision; huge population losses from excess mortality of men, especially from accidents, poisoning and injuries; family crisis, high divorce rate; dependence of the rate of population decline on the level of compensation for natural loss of external migration; significant volumes of forced migration and illegal migration; reduction in the volume of internal migration, reduction in population mobility.

The persistent absolute decline in population that began in 1992 became alarming by the end of the decade. Due to natural decline, the population of Russia during the period from 1994 to 2002 decreased by 7.7 million people. However, as a result of positive migration growth, the population decline turned out to be much less and the population actually decreased by 4.9 million people, amounting to 143.1 million people at the beginning of 2003.

The population of Russia will continue to decline, on average by about 0.6-0.8 million people annually, and the size of the loss will be determined both by the difference between mortality and birth rates, and by the size of the migration increase. By 2010, the number of Russians will decrease to approximately 138-139 million people. Over these years, according to UN forecasts, Russia will be surpassed in population by Bangladesh and Nigeria. Russia will move from 7th to 9th place in the world in terms of population.

Natural population decline, as the main cause of depopulation in Russia, is stable and long-term. In 1999-2002, the annual excess of deaths over births in the country as a whole was consistently about 1 million people (1.7-1.8 times). At the same time, the compensating role of positive interstate migration growth in replenishing losses in Russia’s population has decreased significantly in recent years. If in 1994 the natural population decline was replaced by 93% by registered external migration, then in 1998 by 41%, and in 2001-2002 by only 8%.

Depopulation has affected, to varying degrees, almost all territories of the Russian Federation and almost all ethnic groups. The problem of low birth rates has become particularly acute. A decline in the birth rate is characteristic of many developed countries, but the Russian Federation is characterized by a uniquely low birth rate. Since the late 60s, the birth rate in Russia has dropped below the level necessary for simple population reproduction. Although extensive factors led to an increase in the absolute number of births in 2000-2002, they practically did not change the birth rate.

In 2002, there were 1397.0 thousand children, which is 182.3 thousand more than in 1999. The growth, which is encouraging at first glance, is mainly due to a temporary increase in the number of women in the most childbearing ages of 20-29 years.

At the same time, the total fertility rate does not exceed one hundred thirty-one births per 100 women of reproductive age (15-49 years). This is significantly lower than the level necessary for the numerical replacement of generations of parents with their children, or simple population reproduction.

The nature of the birth rate in the Russian Federation is determined by the widespread prevalence of small families (1-2 children), as well as the late birth of the first child. The decline in the birth rate in Russia occurred over an unprecedentedly short period of time by demographic standards.

The need for strict intra-family regulation of childbirth, the late birth of the first child by young spouses and the increase in the average age of the mother at the birth of children (2001-26.0 years, 1994 -24.7) have become an adequate response of the population to the impact of the economic situation. Against this background, there has been a noticeable rejuvenation in the age at which sexual activity begins, the spread of premarital cohabitation without the intention of having children and marriages that are not legally registered, as well as a noticeable increase in out-of-wedlock births. In 1995-2002 alone, the share of children born outside of a registered marriage among all births increased 1.5 times and reached almost 30%.

The severity of depopulation in the Russian Federation is formed not only due to the low birth rate, but also, first of all, due to the high mortality rate of the population, which is the most painful problem of modern demographic development in Russia.

Since 1999, the overall mortality rate of the country's population began to rise again and amounted to 16.3 deaths per 1000 population in 2002 against 15.7 in 1994 and is currently the highest in Europe. Over the past 4 years, this figure has increased by 20%. The influence on mortality of such factors as the spread of alcoholism, smoking, and road accidents has increased. The number of deaths not only from chronic, but also from socially determined diseases is increasing.

The mortality situation in the country is determined by the dynamics of deaths among people of working age. In 2002, the share of working-age deaths in the total number of deaths was 29%.

The problem of excessive mortality in working age is, first of all, the problem of mortality among men, the level of which is 4 times higher than that of women. While in developed countries the mortality rate of men of working age is 2-4 times lower than in Russia.

The emerging trends in the field of natural and migration movements of the population predetermine a further decline in the country's population. According to the forecast of the State Statistics Committee of Russia, by 2016 the country's population will decrease by 9.7 million people (or 6.7%) compared to the beginning of 2002 and will amount to 134.3 million people. Positive migration growth does not compensate for natural population decline.

The current parameters of the population itself (age structure) and its reproduction are such that the population of Russia in the 21st century will continue to decline and in 5-6 decades, in the worst case scenario, it may be approximately halved.

Main strategic objectives of demographic policy:

Improving the health of the population, increasing life expectancy, reducing preventable mortality of the population, especially men of working age;

Stimulating the birth rate and strengthening the family by increasing the material well-being, quality and standard of living of families, social protection of families and material incentives for the birth of children;

Activation outreach

What are the dynamics of the birth rate in Russia? In general, the birth rate is the number of babies born in a year. This indicator directly affects the dynamics of the population of certain countries. Where the birth rate is high, natural increase is usually high; there is an increase in population. This is especially true for the countries of Central Africa.

The article examines the dynamics of the birth rate in Russia and statistics by year.

Dynamics in the world

In general, the world's birth rate is gradually decreasing, and there is hope that the world's population will not exceed 9 billion people. Otherwise, this is fraught with the risk of environmental and humanitarian disasters. At the moment, Africa mainly maintains the tradition of large families. In China, India and a number of other Asian countries, the birth rate has decreased, including to the level of simple population reproduction. However, due to inertia, the population is still growing, since the main mortality rate falls on representatives of the older age group, the share of which (also due to inertia) still remains relatively small. But in the future, population growth in most Asian countries will obviously stop. In South Korea, for example, it is not only not growing, but is even rapidly falling.

It is not surprising, therefore, that the UN’s eyes are now directed specifically at African countries, where they still have many children per family, which is causing a demographic boom. Therefore, the rise in world population will still continue.

In some countries, the population is decreasing and natural growth is negative. Russia is among them. Although the number of residents may not be decreasing due to the influx of migrants, the dynamics of the birth rate in Russia over the years is quite negative.

Population of Russia

Russia is a multinational country with a large population. It is distributed unevenly across the territory. On average, population density is quite low. In 2018, the country's population was 146 million 880 thousand 432 people. This corresponds to 9th place in the world. - only 8.58 people/km 2. More than 68% of Russians live in the European territory of the country, which occupies only a fifth of the total territory. The European part is 9 times more densely populated than the Asian part. The density of residents in Moscow is extremely high - 4626 people/km 2 . The lowest level is recorded in Chukotka (0.07 people/km2).

The share of the urban population in the country is 80.9%. This largely determines the low birth rate. Currently, in many countries around the world, especially in Asia, there is a movement of residents from rural regions to cities, which leads to a decrease in the birth rate. The situation remains the same only in Africa.

In total, there are over 200 nationalities recorded in Russia. There is a large proportion of elderly people in our country.

Fertility in the modern history of Russia

During the Soviet period, the birth rate in the country was significant and amounted to over 2.1 units. In cities this figure was 1.9, and in rural areas - 3.0-3.1. This is how many children Soviet families had (on average). For population reproduction, a figure of 2 or higher is required.

A sharp drop in the birth rate was observed in the 90s. The level was especially low in 1999, when the average birth rate was 1.17. Then there was a gradual increase, which stopped in 2015 and was replaced by a new wave of decline, associated, among other things, with the deterioration of living conditions in the country. Thus, the dynamics of the birth rate in Russia is quite contradictory.

Natural population growth

Natural population growth is the difference between the birth rate and death rate. Until the 90s of the 20th century it was positive, and then negative. He entered the neutral zone only in 2012. This was due to a simultaneous increase in the birth rate and a decrease in mortality. However, mortality still remained significantly higher than under the USSR. Which indicates the adverse impact of a market economy on the health of citizens.

Regional features

Fertility, mortality and natural increase have different dynamics in different regions of the Russian Federation. In the Asian part of the country, the birth rate is higher and the death rate is lower. Accordingly, natural growth is higher there. By all indicators, the situation is worst in the regions of the central part of the EPR. These regions are rightly called endangered. The mortality rate here reaches more than 16 people. per 1000 inhabitants per year. And the lowest values ​​are in the oil and gas producing regions of Western Siberia - only 5-8 people per 1000. The birth rate there is also not bad. The result is high natural growth.

Features of mortality in Russia

Unlike other countries, in Russia the main culprit of mortality (60% of deaths) is cardiovascular diseases. Low income, poor lifestyle, poor medical and environmental conditions, drunkenness and smoking, poor quality of food and (probably) medicines, a large amount of stress (due to difficult and unpredictable living conditions), overload at work, etc. their streams into the common cauldron in which death is prepared. Life expectancy for men in Russia is very low. This indicator is one of the worst in the world.

Life expectancy in our country is much lower than in a number of other countries, including developing ones. Even in Ukraine it is somewhat higher.

Fertility dynamics in Russia in recent years

In recent years, the country has seen a clear deterioration in demographic indicators. Some attribute this to a decrease in the number of women of childbearing age. However, it seems more likely that this is not the only root of the problem. And indeed, if life gets worse and harder every year, then this will definitely not increase your enthusiasm for having new children. Moreover, according to statistics, most of the poor in Russia are members of families with children.

Wikipedia prudently ends its charts on more prosperous years, which is typical for this publication (to show that we are doing well). However, Rosstat data in recent years indicate a developing trend towards a decline in the birth rate in Russia.

Its decline began in 2016. Then it fell by 2.6% compared to the previous year. In 2017, this process accelerated sharply. Compared to 2016, 11.3% fewer children were born in the country. This situation was partly associated with the natural decline in the number of women of childbearing age, but the socio-economic crisis also played a significant role.

2018 continued the same trend. Thus, in the first 8 months of this year, 5.2% fewer people were born in the country than during the same period in 2017.

Obviously, the total decline over the past three years is significant. In general, the world birth rate is also gradually decreasing, but the abnormally sharp decline in Russia may be associated with social reasons.

A decrease in the indicator was noted in 83 constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

Mortality in Russia

The modern dynamics of fertility and mortality are quite interconnected. The mortality rate of the population is even more closely related to the socio-economic well-being of the country. A special feature of 2018 was the overlap of two trends:

• falling birth rate;
• increase in mortality.

All this led to an increase of 170 thousand people per year, and it became a record for the last 10 years. True, the increase in mortality is small - only 15,000 people. This has more psychological than demographic significance. We have already discussed why there is a high mortality rate in the country. And the fact that it is growing (if this is not a random fluctuation) may indicate a further deterioration of the situation.

The excess of mortality over birth rate was 1.2 times. However, in some individual regions the situation is much worse. Thus, in every third subject of Russia the excess is 1.5-2 times.

At the same time, the birth rate is falling in 83 out of 85 regions, and the mortality rate is increasing in 54 out of 85. A decrease in the migration flow into the country by 1.5 times was also noted. As a result, for the first time since 2011, the country’s population actually decreased.

Expert opinion

According to the director of the analytical department of Loko-Invest, Kirill Tremasov, such a demographic situation can be considered dramatic. However, he does not know what exactly is causing the drop in birth rates. But he speaks more definitely about the increase in mortality. This, in his opinion, is the result of a decrease in the quality and availability of medical services.

Finally

Thus, the dynamics of the birth rate in Russia shows a sharp decline in the 90s of the 20th century and at the present time. Among the main reasons for this is the deterioration of the socio-economic situation in the country. The dynamics of fertility are interconnected.

Under fertility In demographic science, the process of childbearing is understood in the totality of people constituting a generation, or in the totality of generations - the population 1.

To characterize the intensity of the birth rate, various indicators are used, the most common of which is the total fertility rate (TFR).

Total fertility rate is the ratio of the number of live births during a calendar year to the average annual population.

For convenience of comparison of territories with different population sizes, as a rule, the ROC is calculated per 1000 population and measured in ppm (%o):

Where N- the number of children born during this period; T - period (years); R- population size at the middle of the period.

The simplicity of calculating the OCR and its convenience for comparison in different territories make this indicator the main characteristic of fertility.

According to the rating scale proposed in the 1960s. well-known Soviet demographers B. Ts. Urlanis and V. A. Borisov, ROCs with values ​​less than 16% characterize fertility as low, in the range from 16 to 24 - average, from 25 to 29 - above average, from 30 to 39 - high, and more than 40% - very high. Over the past 50 years, due to the general decline in fertility rates both in Russia and in the world, in general, the above assessment scale is already outdated and requires revision.

It should be noted that over the history of mankind, the birth rate of the world population has been steadily declining, although until the middle of the 18th century, under favorable conditions, it was universally approaching the physiological maximum - 50-60% per year. With the development of medicine, an increase in the cultural level and the involvement of women in social production, the birth rate began to gradually decline. At the beginning of the 20th century. The average birth rate in the world was 40-45%, in 1950-1955. - 37, and in the mid-1980s. - already 26% per year. Today, the average birth rate on Earth is 20% and continues to decline.

At the same time, the rate of decline in fertility in different regions and countries of the world varies significantly (Table 6.1). So, if in general in the world over the period from 1950 to 2015 the ROC decreased from 37 to 20%, then in India over the same period this figure changed from 40 to 21, in China - from 36 to 12, in Russia - from 31 to 13, Japan - from 28 to 8, Germany - from 26 to 8%.

Dynamics of OCD in 1970-2015. by region of the world

Region of the world	OKR (annual average), %o
Asia, including
Western Asia
Central and South Asia
East Asia
Southeast Asia
Africa, including
North Africa
Tropical Africa
America, including
North America
Latin America
Australia and Oceania

Today, the maximum value of the ROC is observed in the countries of Tropical Africa - in 2015 in 43 countries out of 55 it exceeded 30%, and in countries such as Burkina Faso, Gambia, Mali, Niger, Burundi, Mozambique, Somalia, Zambia, Central African Republic (CAR), Angola, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, ROC exceeds 40%. Among the countries in the world with the highest birth rates, East Timor (36%), Afghanistan (35), Yemen (33) should be noted. In the Western Hemisphere, the maximum value of the ROC no longer exceeds 30% and the highest indicators are typical for countries such as Haiti (28), Bolivia (26), Guatemala (25) (Fig. 6.1).

If the highest ROC indicators are characteristic of the least economically developed countries of the world, then the minimum values, on the contrary, are observed in the post-industrial countries of Europe and Asia. For most European countries, the ROC is currently 10-12%, and in countries such as Germany, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, it does not exceed 8- 9%o. Similar fertility rates are typical for some Asian countries, such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.

However, the OCD does not provide a complete description of the situation with fertility, since its value is strongly influenced by the gender and age structure of the population. If in the population groups for which the OCR is calculated, the proportion of women of childbearing age differs significantly, this will inevitably affect the number of children born and, as a consequence, the coefficient values. In this regard, to study the potential possibility of childbearing - fertility, depending on reproductive

S Rice. 6.1. OCD by country of the world, 2015, % of women’s behavior, other indicators are used, which include:

• 1) special birth rate;
• 2) age-specific birth rates;
• 3) total fertility rate.

Special Fertility Rate(or fertility rate (fertility)) shows the number of children born in a year divided by the number of women of reproductive (childbearing) age. Usually, when calculating the special fertility rate (SFR), the childbearing age of women is considered to be the age interval from 15 to 49 years (inclusive).

Special KR calculated per 1000 women of childbearing age using the following formula:

Where N- number of children born; W- number of women of reproductive age.

OCD is associated with the following special relationship:

Where k- the share of women 15-49 years old in the entire population.

The value of the Special CR depends on the age structure of the female population of reproductive age. Thus, at the age of 15 years, the birth rate is close to zero, between 20 and 30 years it reaches a maximum and disappears by the age of 50. With a normal distribution by sex and age, the parameter k usually varies in different ethnosocial groups ranging from 20 to 30% of the total population. The relationship between Special CR and OCD in each individual society is practically unchanged, which makes it possible to use Special CR to analyze the intensity of the fertility process.

Depending on reproductive behavior, determined by the prevailing social and cultural norms, traditions, and public opinion in society, the age of most intense fertility in women in different countries may vary. Thus, more accurate measures of the birth rate are age-specific birth rates, showing the average number of births per year per 1000 women of a given age group. Over time, age-specific fertility rates may change, which is associated with changes in both the intensity of the birth rate in general and with changes in reproductive attitudes regarding the timing and number of births.

So, if in Russia in the middle of the 20th century. most births of children occurred in the age group of 20-24 years and the birth rate for this five-year group was 158 children per 1000 women, then in 2013 the maximum birth rate was in the age group 25-29 years and amounted to 108 children per 1000 women (Fig. 6.2).

If you add up all age-specific fertility rates, you can get the average number of children born to one woman throughout her life. This indicator of fertility intensity, which does not depend on the age composition of the female part of the population, is called total fertility rate (TFR).

Rice. 6.2.

1 - up to 20 years; 2 - 20-24; 3 - 25-29; 4 - 30-34; 5 - 35-39; 6 - 40-44; 7 - 45+

Like TFR, TFR has declined steadily over the last century worldwide. For different regions and countries of the world, the rate of this decline is not the same. Thus, if from 1975 to 2015 for all humanity the TFR decreased by 40%, then in the countries of East Asia this figure decreased by more than 2 times. At the same time, in Europe the TFR, which at the beginning of the period under review was already about two children per woman, decreased by only 20% over the next four decades. For individual countries, the difference in the dynamics of the TFR over the past 60 years turned out to be even more significant (Table 6.2).

Table 6.2

Dynamics of TFR in 1960-2010 but to individual countries of the world

TFR is of great importance for understanding the direction of the population reproduction process.

Population reproduction in demographic science is understood as the constant renewal of generations of people as a result of the interaction of fertility and mortality, occurring within the framework of historically defined social relations.

Since the ratio of girls and boys at birth is approximately equal for all peoples of the Earth, then for the numerical replacement of a generation of parents, it is necessary that each woman gives birth to at least two children during her life. Taking into account infant and child mortality rates, which vary markedly in different regions of the world, to ensure simple population reproduction, the TFR value must be greater than two. How much more than two the TFR should be depends on the mortality rates existing in a given country (region). Today in European countries, in order to replace the generation (parents) leaving the fertile age, the next generation (children) should be 2-3% more numerous. And in the countries of Tropical Africa, about 20-25% of the population dies before they reach fertile age and can become parents themselves. Therefore, if in Europe, to ensure simple reproduction of the population, the TFR must be at least 2.04-2.06, then to ensure simple reproduction of the population in African countries, with the existing level of child and adolescent mortality, this indicator must be at least 2.4-2.06. 2.5.

Like ROC, today, at the beginning of the 21st century, TFR is of greatest importance in the states of Tropical Africa. In Burkina Faso, Niger, Somalia, Burundi, South Sudan, Angola, Central African Republic, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, each woman gives birth to more than six children on average during her lifetime. Among other countries in the world, the highest TFR rates are observed in East Timor (5.7) and Afghanistan (4.9) (Figure 6.3).

Minimum TFR values ​​are typical for economically developed countries. In Europe, this figure today does not exceed two, amounting to an average of 1.2 children per woman in countries such as Bosnia and Herzegovina and Portugal. Similar indicators are observed in a number of Asian countries, such as Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore.

Despite the change in the functions and forms of the family institution that has occurred in recent decades in many countries of the world, in most regions of the Earth the birth rate still strongly depends on the proportion of the population that is married. Accordingly, when analyzing fertility, it is important to take into account its marital and non-marital components, as well as the family structure of the population. In this regard, in demographic statistics, great importance is given to such indicators as marriage rates, divorce rates, and household composition.

Crude marriage and divorce rates are calculated as the ratio of the number of inmates and divorces during a calendar year.

g Rice. 6.3. TFR by country, 2015

yes marriages to the average annual population. As of 2015, in terms of marriage and divorce rates, Russia is still quite different from European countries - per 1000 people per year we have 7.9 marriages and 4.2 divorces.

Food for thought

In European countries, marriage and divorce rates have changed dramatically over the past decades. If in the early 1960s. in the countries of Western Europe per 1000 inhabitants there are an average of 7-8 marriages annually, and in the countries of Eastern Europe and the USA - 10-11, then at the beginning of the second decade of the 21st century. for most European countries this figure has dropped to 4-5. Over the same period, the number of divorces per thousand inhabitants increased in European countries1 from 0.5-0.8 to 2.5-3. Thus, today in France the ratio of marriages and divorces per 1000 inhabitants is 3.7: 2; in Spain - 3.5: 2.2; in Sweden - 5.3: 2.5; in the UK it is 4.5:2.1. Today, in most European countries, the proportion of children born out of wedlock ranges from 30 to 50%.

The household- this is a group of people living in one residential building or part thereof, jointly providing themselves with food and everything necessary for life, i.e. wholly or partially pooling and spending their funds.

These people may be related by kinship or marriage, or not related, or both. A household can consist of one person living independently and providing themselves with food and everything necessary for life. People without a fixed place of residence and homeless people are also considered households according to statistical reporting. It is the household, and not the family, that today is the main unit of statistical recording when conducting demographic and sociological studies, including population censuses.

Until now, demographers and sociologists have not fully reached a consensus on the reasons for the existing regional differences in fertility levels. It is believed that high birth rates are inherent in the so-called traditional type of population reproduction, characteristic of patriarchal societies in countries that have not yet entered the industrial phase of economic development. In such societies, where a large part of the population still lives in rural areas, the idea of ​​children as a potential source of labor dominates and large numbers of children are seen as an “investment” in the future of the family. High mortality, especially in infancy and childhood, and low life expectancy in general contribute to the realization at the subconscious level of the basic instinct of man as a biological species to procreate. At the same time, the absence of a social security system leads to the fact that a large number of offspring is considered both as a kind of “social insurance” and the possibility of “pension security” in old age.

The birth rate is influenced by the availability and prevalence of contraception, as well as the social role of a woman, her place in the system of economic relations dominant in society. That is why the decline in fertility, which began in Europe two or three centuries ago and gradually spread to other regions of the world, is primarily associated with socio-economic changes in society. The socialization of women, which primarily implies their involvement in production activities, a decrease in the mortality rate, a general increase in living standards and, as a consequence, life expectancy, has led to a change in the reproductive behavior of the population, considered as a system of actions and relationships that mediate the birth or refusal to have a child.

Currently, considering territorial differences in the birth rate across countries of the world, one can notice that its value is inversely proportional to the level of income, which is the most important component of the standard of living of the population (Fig. 6.4). Thus, only 1 out of 56 countries in the world with a GDP per capita of more than 20 thousand. US dollars per year has a TFR of more than three 1. At the same time, of the 56 countries in the world with a TFR of more than three children per woman, 51 countries have an average annual income of less than $10 thousand per person (2015).

Rice. 6.4.

We can say that today states that have minimum values ​​of GDP per capita have maximum TFR values, and vice versa - countries with the highest standard of living, as a rule, have minimum fertility rates.

But it is not only socio-economic conditions that affect fertility rates. It is known that the canons of the main world religions, and primarily Christianity and Islam, encourage fertility and oppose artificially limiting the number of children in families, therefore, in territories where the influence of religion is stronger, as a rule, birth rates are higher.

• See: Demographic Encyclopedic Dictionary. M.: Soviet Encyclopedia, 1985.P. 373. With the exception of the Catholic states of Southern Europe - Italy, Spain, Portugal, where divorces were officially prohibited until the end of the 1970s.
• See: All-Russian Population Census 2010. T. 6. Number and composition of households.URL: http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/perepis2010/croc/Documents/Vol6/methodologv.pdf.
• This is Equatorial Guinea, which has a GDP at purchasing power parity of 23.2 thousand US dollars per person (2013) and a TFR of 4.9 (2014).
• Considered taking into account purchasing power parity (PPP).

If we adhere to the position that a multiple increase in the Earth's population is not expected, then from the available basic quantitative forecasts (UN, Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and the World Bank), we can use data from the United Nations Fund for Population Research (UNFPA).

The United Nations publishes reports presented by Dr. Nafiz Sadiq, Executive Director of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). Particularly interesting is the report “World Population. 1990”, containing the main reporting indicators of social development for countries of the world in the mid or late 80s. and a number of demographic indicators, calculated mainly for 1990. The main thing is the simultaneous comparability of data for different countries, which, according to the official statistics of these countries, would not be easy to achieve, if not impossible. It also uses the responses of the governments of states and territories to questions posed to them in advance, plus calculations by UNFPA specialists on the world, its regions and countries. In this regard, the material is unique in accuracy (although it will always remain approximate due to the dissimilarity of statistical approaches, the state of accounting and other factors characterizing different countries). Moreover, it gives a picture of upcoming changes in the economy and population of the world and its main regions in the period up to 2000 and 2025, and defines a development strategy for the 90s. The analysis for previous years mainly covers a 20-year period. Thus, we are talking about a broad retrospective.

Forecast for 2025 - 8.5 billion people.

If we take this latest forecast period, then only 147 million people - less than 5% of world population growth - will be in economically developed countries, most of which are in the northern hemisphere of the Earth. This will happen not due to an increase in the birth rate, but as a result of a decrease in mortality and an increase in life expectancy (from 73 to 79 years). As for the birth rate, each woman in economically developed countries now has 1.9 children over the entire reproductive period, and in Western Europe - 1.58. Only immigration protects countries such as Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Austria from depopulation. In Eastern Europe, birth rates have reached their lowest levels in history.

If in 1950 economically developed countries accounted for 32.7% of population growth, then in 2025 it will account for only 15.8%. Asia will continue to be in first place (1950 - 52.9; 2025 - 57), in second - Africa, whose share increases from 8.6 to 18.4%, in third - Latin America and the Caribbean pool (6.4 and 8.8%).

At least 95% of world population growth in 1990-2025. will fall on developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America. This is more than thirty years ago, when in 1965-1970. Natural population growth in developing countries has reached its peak.

Regional differentiation in population growth is increasingly intensifying. While the population of Latin America is increasing on average by 2.1% per year, the population of Uruguay is growing by less than 1%, the Caribbean by 1.45%, Central America by 2.3%, and Paraguay by 3% and more. It can be assumed that the total population of these countries will increase from 448 million people in 1990 to 760 million in 2025.

A similar picture can be observed in Asia. If in East Asia the annual rate of natural increase is less than 1.3%, then in Southeast Asia it is 1.9%, and in South Asia it is 2.3% and continues to grow. The population of South Asia today is already approximately equal to the population of East Asia and slightly exceeds 1200 million people. West Asia's population, growing at 2.7% annually, has the fastest growth rate after Africa.

Africa is facing truly rapid population growth. It was in the 90s that the continent achieved a record population growth of 3% per year - the highest in the entire history of the region. Every year the population of Africa increases by 10 million people, which already gives rise to many problems today. The situation will become even more difficult in 10 years, when annual growth jumps to 15 million people and the total population of the region is projected to increase from 648 million in 1990 to 1,581 million in 2025.

In 1950, the population of Europe and North America accounted for 32.1% of the world population. In 2025, their share will drop to 15.8%. In contrast, Africa's population will be almost 20% in 2025.

India will approach the population size of China, which is pursuing a harsh policy of “one family, one child,” and by 2050, according to the results of the latest censuses and sociological research, it will become the most populous country in the world. If by then there will be an average of three children per Indian family, as now, the population will be 2.16 billion people. This is fraught not only with serious social cataclysms, but can also cause irreparable damage to the natural environment.

Meanwhile, the experience of China shows that it is possible to control the processes of population growth. In recent years, the Chinese government has managed to limit population growth through tough measures, and experts believe that by the middle of the next century there will be 1.4 billion people there. India could have the same figure if its authorities managed to implement the principle: “one family, two children.”

Looking even further back to the end of the 21st century, many countries will face very serious difficulties if projected population growth rates continue. Thus, the population of Nigeria may reach 500 million people - the same number living in all of Africa in 1982.

conclusions

The greatest changes in population growth rates occurred in the countries of the collapsed USSR and Eastern Europe.

In some (developed) countries, the essence of population policy is to encourage the birth rate; in other developing countries, on the contrary, there are restrictions on the birth rate, designed to slow down the rapid growth of the population.

According to the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, the UN and the World Bank, the world population will stabilize by 2100, with the World Bank's materials being the most accurate.

Test questions and assignments

I task. ("Yes or no").

Demographic forecasting in a broad sense refers to the prediction of the future development of the population, that is, the prediction of the population as a whole.

II task. (Choose the correct answer). The medium-term forecast is calculated:

a) for 5 years;

b) for 10-15-20 years;

c) for 30-50 years;

d) for 100-200-300-400 years. (Correct answer: for 10-15-20 years).

III task. (Complete the sentences).

Depending on the approach to the purpose, forecasts are distinguished: realistic, ..., ....

IV task. (Fill in the missing words).

In the field of fertility in China, the policy is applied... (“one family - one child”, “one family - not a single child”, “one family - five children”).

Bibliography

Boyarsky A.Ya. Demography course. M., “Statistics”. 1967, 1974,1985.

Demographic forecasts / Ed. A.G. Volkova M.: Statistics. 1973.

Urlanis B.Ts. Problems of population dynamics in the USSR. M.: Science. 1974.

Chorea B.S. Problems of cities M.: Mysl. 1971. First edition. Paragraph “Urban labor resources”.

Problems of regional demographic forecasting in the system of national economic planning / Sat. scientific works. Scientific editors B.S. Khorev, D.H. Karimov, D.I. Ponomarenko. Dushanbe, 1979.

Population of Russia / Ed. A.T. Khrushchev. M., 1997. Population. Encyclopedic Dictionary. M., 1994.

© Khorev B.S., 2002

© Khoreva O.B., 2002

Conclusion

Having mastered the textbook material, the reader will be able to obtain fairly accurate information about the detailed system of demographic knowledge. The textbook summarizes the main directions of demographic theory, methodology, history, policy, and forecast. I would like to draw attention to the trends in the development of demographic processes in Russia and the resulting fundamentals of demographic policy, as well as to the trends and forecast of changes in the world population.

In 2001, the Government of the Russian Federation developed a concept for the country's demographic development, and the future development of Russia's population will largely be determined by the progress of its implementation.

In turn, modern demographic processes have a negative impact on economic and social development, exacerbating the already complex relationships between generations, the problem of pensions and social security of the population, the formation of the country’s defense potential, etc.

Taking all this into account, it is necessary to take urgent measures to prevent further negative development of the demographic situation in the country. In the Russian Federation, special socio-demographic legislation should be developed, the main principle of which is to take into account the interests of not only the state and the nation as a whole, but also of each individual person.

Every literate person should not only know the problems and trends in the economic development of the population of his region, but also imagine the problems of the population of Russia against a global background, which is also one of the main objectives of this textbook. Having mastered this knowledge, readers will be able to more constructively solve the problems that arise before them.

The team of authors has created a demography course that does not repeat previous programs, but takes into account the modern situation, is distinguished by an integrated approach, and in-depth study of the constituent material. At the same time, the authors hope that this course will be discussed and subjected to objective examination, which will allow it to be improved and improved in subsequent editions. So, we hope for productive cooperation.

© Volgin N., 2002

Terms

Anamnestic examination- variety of retrospective observation of demographic processes, in which information is collected by interviewing people about the past.

Assimilation of ethnic groups- the loss of peoples’ native language and national identity as a result of long-term communication with other ethnic groups, that is, a kind of dissolution of ethnic groups in a multinational environment.

Refugees- persons forced to leave their place of residence (to leave, to flee, to flee) due to various threatening circumstances and who arrived on the territory of another state without being its citizens.

Irreversible migrations- this is an understanding of migration in the narrow sense (as relocation), in contrast to the idea of ​​migration as any spatial movement of the population, which meets two main conditions: firstly, the population moves from one locality to another, and secondly, the movement is accompanied by a change of permanent residence , and in recent years, citizenship.

Marriage.- A form of relationship between a man and a woman, sanctioned and regulated by the state, the Church, and society as a whole.

Marriage.- The process of formation of married couples in the population.

Marriage age.- The age at which law or custom allows marriage (in Russia for both sexes - 18 years).

"Marriage Market". System of ratios of the numbers of various groups of the marriageable population.

Gross birth rate - serves as a summary characteristic of fertility, shows the number of girls that an average woman will give birth to before the end of her fertile age, while maintaining the current level of fertility at each age throughout her life.

"Baby Boom"- a significant increase in the birth rate, observed, in particular, after the Second World War (1946-1964) in the USA, Canada and a number of other countries, due to a compensatory increase in births postponed during wartime.

"Baby Slump"- the period following the “baby boom” and characterized by a rapid decline in the birth rate to a record low level, which, for example, was observed in the 60s in the USA, Canada and some other countries.

Great Migration- the name of the era of mass migrations of Hunnic, Germanic, Slavic, Alanian and other tribes, mainly in the 4th-7th centuries, which played a large role in the formation of early medieval states and the formation of nationalities, the ancestors of modern European peoples.

Population reproduction- constant renewal of generations of people as a result of the interaction of fertility and mortality.

Forced migrations- a set of territorial movements associated with a permanent or temporary change in the place of residence of people for reasons beyond their control, usually against their wishes (natural disasters, environmental disasters, military actions, violations of fundamental rights and freedoms of citizens).

Internally displaced persons- citizens of the Russian Federation who are forced (or intending) to leave their place of permanent residence in the territory of another state or in the territory of Russia as a result of violence committed against them or members of their families or persecution in other forms, or a real danger of being persecuted due to circumstances, significantly infringing on human rights.

Civil marriage- a marriage formalized by government authorities without the participation of the church. Sometimes civil marriage refers to actual marriage.

Population movement- changes in quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the population. There are three types of population movement: natural, migration and social.

Demographics- a term introduced in Western demography, defines a section of demography devoted to the study of demographic factors of business.

Population policy- purposeful formation of the desired (optimal) type of population reproduction in the long term or consolidation of the existing type, if it is optimal, by implementing a set of interrelated measures.

Demographic statistics- a set of statistical methods used in the analysis of demographic processes.

Demographic coefficients - the ratio of the number of events that occurred in a population to the average population size that produced these events in the corresponding period.

Population explosion- a significant increase in the world population, its rapid growth, due to the persistence of a relatively high birth rate and a sharp decrease in mortality. And, as a consequence, high rates of population growth, observed, for example, since the late 50s in developing countries (2.5-3.5% per year).

Demographic factor- a term used in the scientific literature to denote the dependence of the pace and proportions of social development or its individual economic parameters on the size, growth rate, age-sex structure and family composition of the population, its distribution, and the intensity of individual demographic processes. The demographic factor is a systemic concept that characterizes the population in the unity of its constituent processes and structures, which act as separate demographic factors of social (economic) development.

Demographic forecasting in the broad sense of the word means scientific prediction of the future development of the population, i.e. forecasting both the population as a whole and changes in certain particular characteristics of population movement (estimates for the future, fertility, migration, etc.). The relationship with social characteristics such as migration makes this prediction a socio-demographic forecast.

Demography- the science of the laws of population reproduction in the socio-historical conditionality of this process.

Depopulation- one of the forms of manifestation of the demographic crisis; a systematic decrease in the absolute population of a country or region as a result of narrowed population reproduction, when subsequent generations are numerically smaller than previous ones.

Deportation of peoples- in the USSR in the second half of 1930-40. large-scale forced relocation of entire peoples, as well as representatives of a number of nationalities, from their original native places or territories of their compact residence, mainly to Central Asia, Kazakhstan and Siberia.

The household- a socio-economic unit that unites people through relationships that arise when organizing their common life: maintaining a common household, living together, etc. Unlike a family, relationships of kinship or property between members of the same household are not necessary; a household can include residents, pensioners, servants, etc., and also consist of one person living independently.

One-time population registration- one-time collection of information, mainly about the number of people living in a particular locality or area during a certain period of time.

Natural fertility- fertility not limited by contraceptive measures and induced abortions.

Natural population movement- a generalized name for the totality of births and deaths that change the population size in the so-called natural way.

Natural population growth- the absolute value of the difference between the number of births and deaths over a certain period of time.

Ideal number of children- an individual’s idea of ​​the best number of children in a family in general, without taking into account the specific life situation and personal preferences.

Immigration- entry (settlement) into the country for permanent or temporary (usually long-term) residence of citizens of another country, mostly with the acquisition of new citizenship.

Human Development Index - includes indicators such as average life expectancy, adult literacy rate and real GDP per capita. Developed within the framework of the UN Development Program in 1990 as a tool for assessing the effectiveness of socio-economic programs and determining the priorities of socio-demographic policy.

Sources of population data- printed publications containing numerical information about the population and demographic processes.

Birth calendar- distribution of births over time during the childbearing period or the period of marriage.

Population categories- in accordance with certain registration rules, residents of any locality are distinguished permanent population, actual population, legal population.

Cohort- a set of people who experienced a certain demographic event during the same period of time (for example, a group of people who got married during a calendar year, etc.).

Consolidation of ethnic groups- the merging of several related ethnic communities into one based on the intertwining of their national traits.

Marital fertility rate - the ratio of the number of births in marriage to the number of married women aged 15-49 years for a certain period (year).

Marriage rate(or crude marriage rate). The ratio of the number of all registered marriages for a certain period to the average population for this period.

Dependency ratio - different ratios of the number of enlarged age groups: children (0-14 years), elderly and old (60 years and older), able-bodied (conditionally 15-59 years).

Natural population growth rate - the ratio of natural population growth to the average population over a certain period of time or the difference between the birth rate and death rate. It can be positive, negative or zero. Usually expressed in ppm (%o).

Vitality factor- number of births per 100 deaths.

A measure of the mortality rate of children under one year of age. The infant mortality rate is significantly higher than the mortality rate in the following age groups. This indicator is considered one of the most accurate overall indicators of the level of health care and socio-economic development of a country.

Infant mortality rate - ratio of the number of children who died under 1 year of age (t 0) in a given period (year) to the number of live births in a given (N 0) and past (N 1 ) periods (years) taken with certain weights. For example:

Divorce rate- the ratio of the number of divorces for a given period to the average population for the same period. Depends on the age and marriage structure of the population.

Fertility rate- the ratio of the number of live births to the corresponding population size. It is classified into general, special (by gender) and specific (age) coefficients.

Death rate (or crude death rate)- the ratio of the number of deaths during a certain period (calendar year) to the average population for this period (in % 0).

Pendulum migrations- regular movements of the population from one locality to another to work or study and back.

International migrations

International statistical congresses- the first form of international cooperation in the field of quantitative study of mass social phenomena (1853-1876).

Micro census- microcension, a sample survey of the population, representative of the entire country. Typically, a section of a territory is selected and everyone living in that territory is interviewed, so that all population groups are represented in the sample.

Peoples and ethnic groups- groups of people united by the historically established unity of language, territory, economic life, culture, and national identity.

Illegal migration- external, interstate migration of the population, territorial movements of the population across state borders.

Net population reproduction rate - generalizing characteristics of the population reproduction regime. Shows how many girls born to one woman in her lifetime, on average, will survive to the age of their mother at their birth, given the birth and death rates.

Population survey-demographic survey, collection of information about part of the inhabitants of the territory to study their composition, social and demographic processes or public opinion.

General population movement rates(birth rate, mortality rate, marriage rate, divorce rate) - the ratio of the corresponding number of births, deaths, registered marriages and divorces during a calendar year to the average annual population. Used to assess current changes in the development of the population as a whole.

Life expectancy at birth - a term recently used instead of the term "average life expectancy at birth". The number of years that, on average, a representative of a generation will live from the exact age to death, while maintaining the existing levels of age-specific mortality.

Population census- the main source of information about the population - the process of collecting demographic, economic and social data characterizing at a certain point in time each resident of a country or territory.

Family planning- intrafamily regulation of childbirth.

Fertility- a woman’s biological ability to conceive and give birth to live children. Fecundity is studied as one of the factors of fertility and reproductive behavior.

Population density- the degree of population of a particular territory, the number of permanent population per unit area (usually 1 sq. km).

Generation- a set of people born in the same period who are at any time equal or almost equal in age.

Termination of marriage. Dissolution of a marriage due to the death of one of the spouses or divorce.

ppm(%o) is a unit of measurement of demographic processes. It means the number of certain demographic events (births, deaths, marriages, etc.) per 1000 population.

Simple population reproduction- renewal of the population on an unchanged scale.

Divorceability. The process of disintegration of married couples in a generation due to dissolution of marriage (divorce).

Population distribution- a concept denoting the result of the spatial distribution of the population and the formation of a network of settlements over a certain period of time. It is conveyed through the concepts of “physical population density”, “social population density”, etc.

Divorce. Divorce, termination of marriage during the life of the spouses.

Expanded population reproduction- repopulation on an ever-increasing scale.

Races- groups of people united by a common origin and similarity of external physical characteristics (skin color, hair type, facial features, skull shape, body length, etc.), formed under the influence of territorial climate and other environmental conditions.

Regional demographic forecasting - the most complex aspect of general demographic forecasting, where it is necessary not only to analyze a block of populations, but also migrations (often according to variants).

Reproductive behavior- a system of actions and relationships that mediate the birth or refusal to have a child within or outside of marriage.

Reproductive age- the age of a woman at which she is capable of childbearing, usually from 15 to 49 years.

Fertility- the process of childbirth in a set of people making up a generation or in a set of generations.

Labor market- the sphere of demand and supply of hired labor; an integral part of a market economy along with the market for goods, services, capital, securities, etc.

Balance of migration- the difference between the number of departures and the number of arrivals for any period with a “+” or “-” sign (net migration, net migration).

Seasonal migrations- temporary migration, one of the main types of population migration, which is characterized by temporary (seasonal) territorial movement of migrants. Seasonal migrations can be intrastate and interstate, economic and socio-cultural. In pre-revolutionary Russia - otkhodnichestvo.

Family- based on marriage or consanguinity, an association of people connected by a common life and mutual responsibility.

Update rate- the sum of the total fertility and mortality rates.

Mortality- the process of extinction of a generation, consisting of many single deaths occurring at different ages.

Special fertility rate - ratio of the number of births to the average annual number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years), in %O.

Average age- an approximate general characteristic of the age structure of the population. Calculated as the arithmetic mean of the ages of all people in a given population or generation. Determined by dividing the total number of person-years at the time of observation by the number of those people at that age.

Population structure- various forms of describing the distribution of the population by age, gender, nationality and other demographic characteristics, as well as by territorial units of observation and description.

Narrowed population reproduction- repopulation on an ever-decreasing scale.

Total fertility rate- the average number of births per woman over her entire life, maintaining existing birth rates at each age, regardless of mortality and changes in the age composition. It is obtained as the sum of age-specific fertility rates.

Fertility table- a numerical model of fertility in a real or hypothetical cohort, giving a complete picture of the fertility process, regardless of the existing demographic structures. General fertility tables are constructed without taking into account birth order, while special fertility tables are constructed taking into account birth order.

Mortality tables (life tables)- a numerical mortality model, which is a system of interconnected, age-ordered series of numbers that describe the process of extinction of a certain theoretical generation with a fixed initial number (usually 100,000). Historically, the first and one of the most common among demographic tables. The first indicator of mortality tables is age X, its last (eighth) indicator is life expectancy.

Job turnover- the process of creating and eliminating jobs, the size of which clearly reflects the dynamics of development and structural changes in the labor market and its adjustments.

Current population registration- maintaining lists of residents of a specific territory, intended to estimate the current population size based on collecting information about all events that change it: cases of birth, death, marriage and divorce, changes in place of residence as these events occur.

Sustainable development- simple or expanded reproduction of three factors of economic growth, or three types of capital: labor resources (human capital), physical capital created by human labor, and natural resources (recently increasingly limiting economic development).

"Brain drain"- emigration of scientific, technical and other highly qualified specialists for permanent (usually with a change of citizenship) or temporary (long-term under work contracts) residence.

Actual marriage. Marital relations not formalized in accordance with the procedure established by law.

Migration factors- a set of objective and subjective reasons influencing the decision to migrate.

Human development- a concept that characterizes the expansion of a person’s freedom of choice, the improvement of his capabilities and abilities. Its main dimensions - longevity, education, standard of living - correspond to three key problems - living a long life, acquiring knowledge, and having access to the resources necessary for a decent standard of living.

Economic age pyramid- a method for assessing the cumulative economic effect of changes in the age structure (in general for the entire population and by gender) using the age pyramid and age-specific intensities of economic phenomena (labor productivity, income, consumption).

Economically active population- the sum of those working and willing to work, that is, those registered at the labor exchange as unemployed.

Emigration- relocation (voluntary or forced, spontaneous or organized) to another country for permanent or temporary (long-term) residence, in most cases with a change of citizenship.

Endogenous causes of death- a conditionally distinguished group of causes of death caused by diseases associated primarily with internal processes in the human body itself (diseases of the circulatory system, etc.).

Episodic migrations- these are business, tourist, recreational, etc. trips that are not of a regular temporary nature.

Introduction........................................................ ........................................................ ....... 4

Chapter 1 Theoretical foundations of demography................................. 6

1. Relevance of studying population problems.................................... 6

2. Subject and method of demography................................................. ....................... 12

3. System of demographic sciences.................................................... ............... 17

Chapter II Interrelation of socio-economic and demographic processes.................................................. ............... 23

1. Reproduction of the population at different stages of social development. 23

2. Demographic factors of socio-economic development... 35

Chapter III Sources of population data.................................... 51

1. Population census................................................... ................................... 52

2. Current accounting of population movements.................................................... ............ 59

3. Other sources of population data.................................................... ...... 61

Chapter IV Distribution and structure of the population.................................... 65

1. The concept of population dynamics and distribution.................................................. 65

2. Basic concepts of a formalized description of population distribution 67

3. Age and sex structure of the population.................................... 75

4. Ethnic structure of the population.................................................... .............. 77

Chapter V. System of demographic coefficients... 84

1. The concept of demographic coefficients.................................................... 84

2. Intensity coefficients of demographic processes............ 85

3. Indicators of growth and population growth.................................... 90

4. Structural coefficients.................................................... ........................... 91

5. The influence of some factors on the value of population reproduction rates.................................................... ........................................................ ............ 92

Chapter VI Fertility......................................................... ........................... 98

1. Sources of data and degree of their reliability.................................................... 98

2. Fertility rates.................................................... .................... 98

3. Reasons for the decline in fertility.................................................. ............ 112

Chapter VII Mortality and life expectancy.... 119

1. Mortality factors and causes of death.................................................... .... 119

2. Historical types of mortality.................................................. ............... 122

3. Evolution of life expectancy.................................................... ..... 128

4. Features of mortality in Russia................................................... .......... 133

Chapter VIII Marriage and family................................................... ........................ 144

1. Marriage................................................... ............................................... 144

2. History of the development of the family structure. Family functions................... 147

3. Socio-economic situation of the family in Russia.................................... 153

4. Family policy................................................... ................................... 154

Chapter IX Divorces................................................................................... 158

1. Divorce.................................................................... .................................... 158

2. Reasons for divorce.................................................... .................................... 163

3. The current state of divorce in Russia.................................... 168

Chapter X Population migration.................................................... ........ 174

1. History of population migration.................................................. ............... 174

2. Territorial distribution of the population.................................................... 177

3. Types and factors of migration................................................... ........................... 180

4. Regional aspect of migration.................................................... ............... 184

5. International migration................................................... ....................... 185

6. Migration and labor markets in modern Russia.................................... 187

Chapter XI Modern trends in the development of demographic processes in Russia.................................................... ................................... 193

1. Main trends in the development of the population of Russia.................................... 193

2. Demographic consequences of wars and other emergency situations 199

3. Features of modern trends in the reproduction of the population of Russia.................................................... ........................................................ ........................... 203

Chapter XII Reproduction and composition of the world population 211

Russia is diverse in all dimensions, including demographics. There is great differentiation in regional fertility levels in the country. The lowest birth rate occurs in the Central Federal District. It is slightly higher in the Northwestern District. On the other hand, the highest rates are observed in the Southern Federal District. If we focus on the overall fertility rate, then the Siberian Federal District lags somewhat behind the Southern District, and then the value of this indicator is approximately the same in the Ural and Far Eastern Federal Districts. At the same time, it must be borne in mind that the total fertility rate, calculated per 1000 of the total population, significantly depends on the age-sex structure of the population, which differs markedly both between federal districts and, to an even greater extent, between the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

After a slight decline in the birth rate in 2005, it was followed by an increase in 2006 and, especially, in 2007 (Appendix, Table 1).

In 2006, the total fertility rate in three federal districts (Central, Ural, Siberian) returned to the 2004 level, in three more (Northwestern, Southern and Volga) it was slightly lower than in 2004, and in In the Far Eastern Federal District, it did not change compared to 2005, remaining noticeably lower compared to the 2004 level.

In 2007, under the influence of the beginning of the implementation of new measures of state assistance to families with children, the birth rate increased to one degree or another in all federal districts and in all regions. The largest increase in the total fertility rate was in the Southern Federal District. Here this indicator, compared to 2006, increased by 1.3% points. This figure increased by 1.1% points in the Siberian District, and by 1.0% points in the Volga and Ural Districts. The smallest increase in the total fertility rate was in the Northwestern (by 0.8% points), Far Eastern (by 0.8% points) and Central (by 0.7% points) federal districts.

Among the subjects of the Russian Federation, the highest value of the total fertility rate in 2007 was in the Chechen Republic (27.1 per 1000 population). It also exceeded the level of 20‰ in the Republic of Tyva and in the Aginsky Buryat Autonomous Okrug. On the other hand, in 17 regions the total fertility rate does not exceed 10‰, and in 3 regions (Leningrad, Tambov and Tula regions) – even 9‰.

In the Republic of Buryatia, Kemerovo and Lipetsk regions, as well as in Moscow in 2005-2007. There was a constant increase in the total fertility rate. On the other hand, only in 2007 this coefficient increased in the republics of Altai, Dagestan, Komi, Mordovia, Tyva and Chechen, in the Altai, Kamchatka and Primorsky territories, in the Amur, Voronezh, Magadan, Murmansk, Novosibirsk, Sakhalin and Tambov regions, in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. There was no increase in this indicator either in 2005 or 2006.

The largest increase in the total fertility rate in 2007 compared to 2006 took place in the republics of Tyva (by 5.1% points), Chechen Republic (by 3.2% points), and Altai (by 3.1% points). -th points), Karachay-Cherkess (at 2.5‰ points), Kabardino-Balkaria (at 2.4‰ points), North Ossetia-Alania (at 1.8‰ points), Khakassia ( by 1.8‰ points), Dagestan (by 1.7‰ points), Sakha (Yakutia) (by 1.7‰ points), Bashkortostan (by 1.6‰ points), Ingushetia (by 1.6‰ points), Kaliningrad region (by 1.6‰ points), in Aginsky Buryat (by 2.6‰ points) and Nenets (by 1.6‰ points) autonomous districts It is noteworthy that all these regions have relatively high birth rates. The only exceptions are the Kaliningrad region and, to some extent, the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic. Two conclusions follow from the data presented.

The first is preliminary and should be tested on indicators that more adequately characterize the level of fertility than the general coefficient. Its essence is that a relatively greater increase in the birth rate in 2007 as a result of the implementation of new measures of state assistance to families with children took place in those regions where a relatively high birth rate still remains, targeting a relatively larger number of children, which are implemented in the case of providing assistance to families.

The second conclusion is the advisability of assessing not only the absolute, but also the relative increase in fertility indicators in 2007, because with a higher level of fertility, the same absolute increase in the indicator will produce a smaller relative increase and vice versa. In statistical terms, the absolute value of a 1% increase will be different.

The total fertility rate in the republics of Tyva (by 26.4%), Kabardino-Balkarian (by 23.1%) and Karachay-Cherkess (by 21.4) increased by more than 20% in 2007 compared to 2006. %). The relative increase in this indicator was somewhat less in the Altai Republic (by 18.7%) and the Kaliningrad region (by 17.2%). If we talk about other regions, for which a significant absolute increase in the total fertility rate was noted above, then a similar relative increase in this indicator was in the republics of Adygea, Udmurtia and Chuvashia, in the Bryansk, Irkutsk, Kursk, Penza and Saratov regions.

On the other hand, an increase in the total fertility rate in 2007 of less than 5% occurred in the Kamchatka Territory, the Magadan Region and the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. Moreover, in the Magadan region the value of this indicator in 2007 did not even reach the level of 2004 and 2005, and in the Leningrad region the total fertility rate in 2007 only returned to the level of 2004.

However, as already noted, the total fertility rate significantly depends on the characteristics of the age-sex structure of the population and therefore cannot adequately characterize the actual birth rate level, both in dynamic and, especially, in territorial comparisons. It is advisable to use not the total, but the total fertility rate (Appendix, Table 2).

In 2007, the birth rate was almost equally low in the Central (total fertility rate - 1.276) and Northwestern (1.287) federal districts. It is slightly higher in the Volga District (1,390). Similar birth rates occur in the Ural (1.466), Siberian (1.481) and Far Eastern (1.487) federal districts. The highest total fertility rate is in the Southern District (1.563).

In all federal districts except the Far Eastern, the total fertility rate decreased in 2005, and increased slightly in 2006 (the increase here ranged from 0.004 in the Southern and Siberian districts to 0.020 in the Ural district). In the Far Eastern District in 2006, the birth rate continued to decline.

The increase in the total fertility rate in 2007 was completely different. It was the largest in the Southern Federal District, where it amounted to 0.146 or 10.3%. Moreover, in 2006, this district had the highest birth rate. A slightly smaller increase in the total fertility rate in 2007 took place in the Siberian District (0.133 or 9.9%). In the Volga Federal District, the total fertility rate increased in 2007 by 0.119 or 9.4%, in the Ural Federal District - by 0.107 or 7.9%, in the Far Eastern District - by 0.095 or 6.8%, in the Northwestern Federal District - by by 0.086 or 7.2%, in Central – by 0.079 or 6.6%.

Regarding the increase in the total fertility rate in 2006, the largest increase in 2007 was in the Southern Federal District (by 0.142). In the Siberian District it was 0.129, in the Volga District - 0.112, in the Far Eastern District - 0.107, in the Ural District - 0.087, in the Northwestern District - 0.079, in the Central District - 0.067. It is these data that make it possible to judge the possible degree of influence of the beginning of the implementation in 2007 of new measures of state assistance to families with children on changes in the birth rate. If they had not existed, then we can assume that the increase in the total fertility rate in 2007 would have remained approximately at the same level as it was a year earlier. Thus, there is reason to assume that these measures produced the greatest result in the Southern Federal District (approximately 10.0% increase in the total fertility rate), and the least in the Central Federal District (slightly more than 5.5%).

In the Far Eastern Federal District in 2007, the total fertility rate was only 0.021 higher than the level that occurred in 2004. In other federal districts, this increase was noticeably greater: Northwestern - 0.036, Southern - 0.053, Volga - 0.055, Central - 0.058 , Ural - 0.074, Siberian - 0.087. Here the Southern District no longer stands out in comparison with other federal districts. The fact is that before a significant increase in the total fertility rate in this district in 2007, there was a sharp decrease in 2005 - by 0.097. In other federal districts it was lower: Volga - by 0.071, Far Eastern - by 0.062, Northwestern - by 0.057, Ural - by 0.053, Siberian - by 0.050, Central - by 0.033. It turns out that after a relatively recent significant decline in the birth rate, its level is recovering faster. This result, in our opinion, complements the previously stated hypothesis that while the birth rate remains relatively high, policy measures aimed at increasing it give a relatively greater result.

Only in 4 regions of Russia the birth rate in 2007 was sufficient to ensure population reproduction: the Altai, Tyva and Chechen Republics, the Aginsky Buryat Autonomous Okrug. In the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, the total fertility rate (2.197) also, it would seem, should have ensured population reproduction. However, this was not the case due to the high mortality rate. As a result, the net population reproduction rate here was 0.993.

On the other hand, in 17 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the total fertility rate in 2007 did not exceed 1.3 (Republic of Karelia, Belgorod, Voronezh, Ivanovo, Moscow, Murmansk, Nizhny Novgorod, Oryol, Penza, Rostov, Saratov, Smolensk, Tambov, Tomsk , Ulyanovsk and Yaroslavl regions, Moscow), and in 4 more regions it was even below 1.2 (Republic of Mordovia, Leningrad and Tula regions, St. Petersburg). These regions are by far the most problematic in terms of fertility.

In most regions, in 2005 there was a decrease in the total fertility rate, which was replaced in 2006 by a slight increase. At the same time, in a significant part of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation (the republics of Altai, Dagestan, Kalmykia, Karachay-Cherkess, Karelia, Komi, Mari El, Mordovia, Sakha (Yakutia), Tatarstan, Tyva, Chechen and Chuvash, Altai, Kamchatka, Primorsky and Stavropol Territory, Amur, Bryansk, Voronezh, Leningrad, Magadan, Murmansk, Novosibirsk, Omsk, Pskov, Ryazan, Saratov, Sakhalin, Tambov and Ulyanovsk regions, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District) the decline in the birth rate continued in 2006. Among these regions, along with those where the birth rate was generally high relative to Russia or was at its level, also included those where birth rates in 2004 were low even against the all-Russian background (Republic of Mordovia, Stavropol Territory, Bryansk, Voronezh, Leningrad (here in 2004 there was, and still remains the lowest birth rate in the country), Murmansk, Omsk, Ryazan, Saratov, Tambov and Ulyanovsk regions).

On the other hand, in Moscow there was no decrease in the birth rate in 2005, and in the Republic of Buryatia the total fertility rate increased throughout the entire period under review (however, in 2005 its increase by 0.001 can be considered an increase only formally). In addition, in the Nenets and Chukotka Autonomous Okrugs, unlike other regions, the total fertility rate increased slightly in 2005 and, conversely, decreased in 2006. The increase in the total fertility rate in 2007 was significantly greater than in 2006 g. (Table 2.2.1).

The largest absolute increase in the total fertility rate in 2007 was in the Altai, Karachay-Cherkess, Tyva and Chechen republics, where it exceeded 0.3. The smallest increase was in two regions of the Far East (Kamchatka Territory and Magadan Region), as well as in the Leningrad, Moscow and Tula regions. At the same time, in the Leningrad and Tula regions, both in 2006 and 2007, the birth rate was the lowest in Russia.

Table 2.2.1

Grouping of regions according to the absolute increase in the total fertility rate in 2007

Absolute increase in the total fertility rate in 2007 compared to 2006.
	Kamchatka Territory, Leningrad, Magadan, Moscow and Tula regions
	republics of Karelia, Komi and Mordovia, Krasnoyarsk, Primorsky and Khabarovsk territories, Amur, Belgorod, Vladimir, Vologda, Voronezh, Kemerovo, Kostroma, Lipetsk, Murmansk, Nizhny Novgorod, Novosibirsk, Oryol, Pskov, Rostov, Samara, Sakhalin, Sverdlovsk, Smolensk, Tambov, Tver, Ulyanovsk and Yaroslavl regions, Moscow and St. Petersburg, Khanty-Mansiysk - Ugra and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug
	Republics of Buryatia, Ingushetia, Kalmykia, Mari-El, Tatarstan and Chuvash, Altai, Krasnodar, Perm and Stavropol territories, Arkhangelsk, Astrakhan, Bryansk, Volgograd, Ivanovo, Kaluga, Kirov, Kurgan, Kursk, Novgorod, Omsk, Orenburg, Penza, Ryazan, Saratov, Tomsk, Tyumen, Chelyabinsk and Chita regions, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District, Jewish Autonomous Region
	republics of Adygea, Bashkortostan, Dagestan, Sakha (Yakutia), Udmurt and Khakassia, Irkutsk and Kaliningrad regions, Nenets Autonomous Okrug
0.200 or more	Republics of Altai, Kabardino-Balkarian, Karachay-Cherkess, North Ossetia-Alania, Tyva and Chechen, Aginsky Buryat Autonomous Okrug

The analysis of interregional differentiation in the increase in the total fertility rate in 2007 largely confirms the hypothesis stated above that it was greater in regions with higher fertility levels.

Table 2.2.2

Grouping of regions according to the relative increase in the total fertility rate in 2007

Relative increase in the total fertility rate in 2007 compared to 2006 (in%)		Average total fertility rate for a group of regions in 2006.
	Kamchatka Territory, Leningrad, Magadan, Moscow, Murmansk, Tula and Yaroslavl regions, Chukotka Autonomous Okrug
	Republics of Karelia, Komi and Mordovia, Krasnoyarsk and Khabarovsk territories, Amur, Vladimir, Vologda, Voronezh, Kemerovo, Kostroma, Lipetsk, Nizhny Novgorod, Oryol, Pskov, Rostov, Samara, Sakhalin, Sverdlovsk, Smolensk, Tver, Ulyanovsk and Chita regions, Moscow and St. Petersburg, Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Yugra, Jewish Autonomous Region
	the republics of Buryatia, Ingushetia, Kalmykia, Mari El and Tatarstan, Krasnodar, Perm and Primorsky territories, Arkhangelsk, Astrakhan, Belgorod, Volgograd, Ivanovo, Kaluga, Kirov, Kurgan, Novgorod, Novosibirsk, Ryazan, Tambov, Tomsk, Tyumen and Chelyabinsk regions, Nenets and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs
	republics of Adygea, Bashkortostan, Dagestan, Sakha (Yakutia), North Ossetia-Alania, Udmurt, Khakassia, Chechen and Chuvash, Altai and Stavropol territories, Bryansk, Irkutsk, Kursk, Omsk, Orenburg, Penza and Saratov regions, Aginsky Buryat Autonomous Okrug
15.0 or more	Republics of Altai, Kabardino-Balkarian, Karachay-Cherkess and Tyva, Kaliningrad region

In the group of regions with the smallest increase in the total fertility rate in 2007 (up to 0.05), the average value of this indicator in 2006 was 1.25, in the group of regions where the increase in the total fertility rate ranged from 0.05 to 0.1 – 1.36, from 0.1 to 0.15 – 1.46, from 0.15 to 0.2 – 1.66, from 0.2 or more – 2.19 (Table 2.2.2).

As a result, the differentiation of regions in terms of the total fertility rate has increased slightly. This is evidenced by the increase in the coefficient of variation from 19.9% ​​in 2006 to 21.9% in 2007. The relationship between the increase in the total fertility rate in 2007 and its level in 2006 necessitates the consideration of interregional differentiation of this increase not only in absolute, but also in relative value.

The largest relative increase in the total fertility rate in 2007 was in the republics of Tyva (26.2%), Kabardino-Balkarian (22.0%), and Karachay-Cherkess (21.3%). If in terms of the absolute value of the increase in the total fertility rate in 2007 the Chechen Republic took second place (after the Republic of Tyva), then in terms of relative value it was only in 9th place. At the same time, the Kaliningrad region, ranking 9th in terms of absolute growth, came to 5th place in terms of relative growth. The smallest relative increase in the total fertility rate in 2007 was in the Magadan region (1.6%). It was somewhat higher in the Kamchatka Territory (2.8%) and in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug (2.9%). Thus, both in absolute and relative growth, the extreme places were occupied by the same regions: the maximum indicators were in the Republic of Tyva, and the minimum in the Magadan Region.

Let us note that the connection between the relative increase in the total fertility rate in 2007 and its value in 2006 is much less pronounced than when using the absolute increase indicator.

The largest increase in the increase in the total fertility rate in 2007 compared to the increase in this indicator that took place in 2006 occurred in the republics of Tyva (by 0.585), Chechen (by 0.506), Altai (by 0.458) and Karachay-Cherkess (by 0.358), in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug (by 0.280). However, it is important to keep in mind that in all these regions in 2006, instead of an increase in the total fertility rate, there was a decrease. If we talk about those regions in which there was also an increase in the total fertility rate in 2006, then its greatest increase in 2007 occurred in the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic (by 0.224), in the Aginsky Buryat Autonomous Okrug (by 0.205) and in the Republic of Bashkortostan (by 0.187).

On the other hand, the smallest increase in the increase in the total fertility rate in 2007, compared with the increase in 2006, took place in Oryol (by 0.033), Samara (by 0.042), Tula (by 0.043), Belgorod (by 0.044), Vologda (by 0.044), Moscow (by 0.044) and Rostov (by 0.049) regions, Kamchatka Territory (by 0.043). However, these regions differ significantly from each other. In the Kamchatka Territory in 2006, there was a reduction in the total fertility rate. In all other regions listed above there was an increase in this indicator. In the Moscow and Tula regions, the increase in the total fertility rate in 2006 was very small. It was relatively small (compared to other regions) in 2007. The increase in the total fertility rate in 2007 was significantly greater in the Vologda, Oryol, Rostov, Samara and, especially, Belgorod regions. In 2006, there was also a noticeable increase in this indicator in these regions.

In 2006, the increase in the total fertility rate was also relatively large in the republics of Buryatia, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, North Ossetia-Alania, Khakassia, in the Volgograd, Irkutsk, Kaliningrad, Kemerovo, Kursk, Novgorod, Orenburg, Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk regions, in Aginsky Buryat Autonomous Okrug and Jewish Autonomous Region.

In most of these regions, a noticeable increase in the total fertility rate in 2006 occurred after a significant reduction in 2005. The only exceptions were the Republic of Buryatia, where an increase in the total fertility rate also occurred in 2005, as well as the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania and Kemerovo an area where the decline in this indicator in 2005 was relatively small. As a result, only in these three regions, as well as in the Republic of Ingushetia and the Volgograd region, in 2006 the value of the total fertility rate exceeded the level of 2004. In other regions, despite the relatively large increase in the indicator in 2006, it did not compensate for the reduction him in 2005

If in Russia as a whole in 2007 there was a uniquely high (for the post-Soviet period) increase in the total fertility rate, then in 34 regions of Russia at the beginning of the 21st century. there was already an increase in this indicator comparable to the level of 2007: the republics of Buryatia (2002), Kalmykia (2002), Karelia (2000-2002), Komi (2002), Kamchatka (2002, 2004) and Khabarovsk (2001-2003) territories, Amur (2001 and 2003), Astrakhan (2002), Vladimir (2003), Vologda (2000-2002), Kostroma (2001-2002), Leningrad (2001-2002), Lipetsk (2002), Magadan (2000-2004), Moscow (2000-2003), Murmansk (2000-2002), Nizhny Novgorod (2003), Novosibirsk (2002), Omsk (2002-2003), Oryol (2002), Pskov (2001), Samara (2002-2003), Sakhalin ( 2000, 2002-2004), Sverdlovsk (2002), Tver (2002), Tula (2000, 2001, 2003), Ulyanovsk (2002) and Yaroslavl (2000-2001) regions, St. Petersburg (2000, 2002, 2003), Nenets (2001), Chukotka (2000-2001, 2003-2004), Khanty-Mansiysk - Yugra (2001-2002), and Yamalo-Nenets (2001) autonomous okrugs, Jewish Autonomous Region (2001).

In a significant part of the regions, the total fertility rate in 2007 returned to the level that occurred in the 1990s. At the same time, in the Republic of Ingushetia the birth rate was higher than in 2007 in 2000-2002, in the Republic of Dagestan - in 2000 and 2002, in the Magadan region - in 2002-2005, in the Republic Karelia and the Ulyanovsk region - in 2002-2004, in the Republic of Tatarstan - in 2002, in the Amur, Leningrad and Tambov regions - in 2003 and 2004, in the Altai Territory and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug - in 2003. , in the Republic of Mordovia, in the Voronezh and Murmansk regions - in 2004.